Lord Mengchang formed a vertical alliance of six states against Qin, and all the other states came to offer congratulations. The King of Wei said, "I have heard that Lord Mengchang has forged this alliance, and all the feudal lords have come to congratulate him—yet I alone do not. Why is that?" Gongsun Yan replied, "The reason Your Majesty does not congratulate him is not out of consideration for Zhao, but out of consideration for Qin. Qin is a state of tigers and wolves. If Lord Mengchang's alliance succeeds and all the feudal lords come to congratulate him, Qin will surely be enraged, and in its rage it will surely attack Zhao. Should Zhao fall, then Wei would be in peril. Thus Your Majesty's refusal to congratulate is both a worry for Zhao and a worry for Wei." The King of Wei said, "Well said." And so he did not offer congratulations.
💡 商战启示录
This discourse reveals the strategic mindset of "not following the tide" in commercial competition. The King of Wei's refusal to offer congratulations was, in essence, a cool-headed identification of latent risks—an avoidance of overlooking the reaction of a formidable adversary (the state of Qin) beneath a veneer of harmony. In modern business, when industry alliances or collaborations take shape, they often provoke vigilance and countermeasures from the dominant player. For instance, in 2019, when Huawei faced sanctions from the United States, some enterprises rushed to take sides or offer congratulations, whereas prudent supply-chain partners maintained a low profile, anticipated the escalation of sanctions, and laid out contingency plans in advance, thereby mitigating losses. Gongsun Yan's counsel serves as a reminder akin to that of a business advisor: amid a wave of cooperation, one must assess the threat posed by a "third-party giant" and make differentiated decisions. The King of Wei's refusal to congratulate was a form of risk hedging—much like a company that, facing a wave of industry consolidation, refrains from blind participation, instead observing quietly and focusing on its own core competitiveness. This teaches managers that strategic decisions must not be driven solely by immediate gains (such as the diplomatic goodwill brought by congratulatory gifts), but must also entail a broader simulation of the overall game, with particular vigilance against the counterstrike of a "Qin-style" monopolist. In the arena of commerce, maintaining independent judgment and anticipating the reactions of powerful rivals is often safer than following the crowd, and it secures long-term initiative.