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The introduction of high-speed rail (HSR) systems in developing countries has been widely promoted as a catalyst for economic growth and social equity. Proponents argue that HSR offers three major benefits. First, HSR significantly reduces travel time between major cities, enhancing business productivity and regional integration. For example, the Madrid–Seville line in Spain cut travel time from over six hours to just two and a half hours, leading to a surge in business trips and investment in intermediate cities. Second, HSR is an environmentally friendly alternative to air travel and cars, as it emits far less carbon dioxide per passenger-kilometer. A study in China found that the Beijing–Shanghai HSR line reduces annual CO2 emissions by approximately 3.8 million tons compared to equivalent air travel. Third, HSR stimulates job creation and technological spillovers. The construction and operation of HSR networks require advanced engineering, manufacturing, and maintenance skills, which can foster a domestic high-tech industry. For instance, Japan’s Shinkansen system not only created direct jobs but also spurred innovations in rail technology that were later exported globally. These benefits suggest that HSR is a sound investment for developing nations seeking rapid modernization.

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While the reading paints an optimistic picture, the actual evidence from developing countries reveals serious flaws in these claims. First, the time savings from HSR are often overstated because most developing countries lack integrated transport networks. Passengers must spend hours reaching peripheral stations, which are frequently located far from city centers, and then face delays in connecting local transit. In Mexico’s proposed Querétaro–Mexico City line, projected time savings of one hour would be nullified by an average 40-minute commute to the station and unreliable feeder buses. Second, the environmental benefits are questionable when considering the full lifecycle. The construction of HSR requires massive amounts of concrete and steel, generating enormous CO2 emissions. A recent analysis of a planned line in Indonesia showed that the carbon payback period would exceed 30 years, far longer than the typical 20-year assessment horizon used in optimistic projections. Moreover, in many developing countries, electricity for HSR is generated from coal, which can make per-passenger emissions higher than those of modern, fuel-efficient airplanes. Third, job creation is limited and often temporary. Most high-skilled engineering and manufacturing jobs are outsourced to foreign companies, as seen in the Saudi Arabia–Spain consortium for the Haramain HSR. Local workers are largely employed in low-wage construction roles that disappear after completion, and technology transfer is minimal due to intellectual property protections. Thus, the purported benefits do not materialize as promised.