托福口语 Task 3

In behavioral economics, the concept of 'anchoring' refers to the tendency for individuals to rely heavily on the first piece of information they encounter (the 'anchor') when making decisions. Even if the anchor is arbitrary or irrelevant, it can disproportionately influence subsequent judgments, such as estimating prices, values, or quantities. Anchoring occurs because the initial information sets a mental reference point, and adjustments are often insufficient. This cognitive bias is robust and affects both experts and novices in various decision-making contexts.

Professor: Let me give you a classic example. In one study, participants were asked to estimate the percentage of African nations in the United Nations. Before answering, they spun a wheel of fortune that was rigged to land on either 10 or 65. After spinning, they saw the number, and then they gave their estimate. Those who saw 10 estimated around 25%, while those who saw 65 estimated around 45%. The wheel was completely random and had nothing to do with the UN, but it served as an anchor. Even though participants knew the number was random, they still adjusted their answers from it. This shows how an arbitrary initial value can pull our judgments toward it, demonstrating the anchoring effect.